Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 34.315130 36.920830 39.762764 43.118122 47.005718 51.411995 56.848719
2025-09-28 30.024780 33.357360 37.213872 42.087745 48.208429 55.828096 66.365550
2025-10-05 28.565589 32.494911 37.249848 43.592592 52.116650 63.667125 81.549965
2025-10-12 27.272121 31.579416 36.973264 44.484542 55.167881 70.779223 97.752905
2025-10-19 26.090273 30.637179 36.489299 44.933646 57.544779 77.283315 115.304685
2025-10-26 24.958508 29.636015 35.790274 44.934727 59.172430 82.873325 133.629840
2025-11-02 23.738011 28.414402 34.666877 44.162293 59.425866 86.116834 148.741065
2025-11-09 22.602893 27.228101 33.491715 43.173319 59.151975 88.295073 162.625470
2025-11-16 21.669719 26.258629 32.547864 42.433030 59.169013 91.003874 179.757557
2025-11-23 20.853054 25.403211 31.706955 41.767406 59.209031 93.751803 199.281973
2025-11-30 20.568515 25.268322 31.892718 42.730620 62.276872 103.793856 254.995498
2025-12-07 19.964459 24.648535 31.318913 42.397039 62.871142 108.372266 296.657158
2025-12-14 19.224605 23.821796 30.418146 41.496308 62.352556 110.366810 331.938758
2025-12-21 18.518471 23.017474 29.514387 40.529969 61.602479 111.654673 368.189013
2025-12-28 18.437343 23.110280 29.978339 41.937028 65.882550 128.337435 595.375626
2026-01-04 18.225239 22.997596 30.111453 42.769801 69.109892 143.847500 1041.303021
2026-01-11 17.936526 22.756049 30.023285 43.188783 71.494149 158.152004 2183.828883
2026-01-18 17.580193 22.397128 29.725434 43.189792 72.906120 169.922337 7061.721664
2026-01-25 17.101603 21.835700 29.072250 42.469031 72.462044 174.015354 51082.107286
2026-02-01 16.609621 21.238760 28.337282 41.545269 71.402545 175.075008 NaN
2026-02-08 16.188249 20.737447 27.740610 40.853092 70.853724 178.423239 NaN
2026-02-15 15.801559 20.278220 27.196278 40.230212 70.412984 182.261057 NaN
2026-02-22 15.719027 20.283200 27.420738 41.131414 74.121412 210.656728 NaN